Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in...

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1. Verfasser: Chan-Lau, Jorge A. (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2003
Schriftenreihe:IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 03/106
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (20 p)
ISBN:1451852916
9781451852912

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