Economic Impact of Population Growth in Egypt

The working-age share of Egypt’s population (the share of the population 15-64) hovered around 54 percent between 1960 and 1990. Starting in 1990, fertility started declining significantly and the working-age share of the population reached an all-time high of 62.6 percent in 2010, before gradually falling to 60.8 percent in 2020. This decline is economically disadvantageous, as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the dependency ratio are inversely correlated in Egypt, as they are globally. With the sharp decline in the dependency ratio, driven by the sharp decline in fertility and the youth dependency ratio during 1990-2010, GDP per capita continued to grow. Egypt is paying a heavy economic price for its high fertility - and the burden will continue to grow. The actual outcome will depend on government social and economic policies - a choice, not destiny.