Prognostic Value of Serum Creatinine and Effect of Treatment of Hypertension on Renal Function: Results From the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program

The Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program followed up 10,940 persons for 5 years in a community-based, randomized, controlled trial of treatment for hypertension. Participants were randomized to one of two treatment groups, stepped care and referred care. The primary end point of the study was all-cause mortality, with morbid events involving the heart, brain, and kidney as secondary end points. Loss of renal function, ascertained by a change in serum creatinine, was among these secondary events. Baseline serum creatinine concentration had a significant prognostic value for 8-year mortality. For persons with a serum creatinine concentration greater than or equal to 1.7 mg/dl, 8-year mortality was more than three times that of all other participants. The estimated 5-year incidence of substantial decline in renal function was 21.7/1,000 in the stepped-care group and 24.6/1,000 in the referred-care group. Among persons with a baseline serum creatinine level between 1.5 and 1.7 mg/dl, the 5-year incidence of decline was 113.3/1,000 (stepped care) and 226.6/1,000 (referred care) (p