Contested net-zero target setting in a transitioning country: The case of South Korea

Many countries have set net-zero targets to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals. However, we do not know why and how transitioning countries have set net-zero targets, given the narratives of economic growth persistent in them. We address this gap by examining the 2050 carbon neutrality target setting in South Korea and assessing its potential to foster transitioning to a carbon neutral society. We draw from Historical Institutionalism to examine the political process of the carbon neutrality agenda setting and from 20 semi-structured interviews and policy documents as material. We find that net-zero target setting was possible due to strong presidential drive with a turnover in majoritarian politics. However, the agenda setting was controversial with limited public engagement. Although the net-zero target seems radical, the institutions change incrementally due to path-dependency in a developmental state. We demonstrate that South Korea is not likely to transition to a low-carbon society in the foreseeable future as the Paris Agreement demands. The pathway is subject to political swings due to its incumbent political economy and low social acceptance. We suggest caution with net-zero declarations in countries that embrace development as they can amount to mere local political action rather than leading to genuine institutionalization.