Predicting the survival benefit of local surgery in patients aged 70 years or older with stage IV breast cancer: A population-based analysis

The aim of this study was to establish individualized nomograms to predict survival outcomes in older female patients with stage IV breast cancer who did or did not undergo local surgery, and to determine which patients could benefit from surgery. A total of 3,129 female patients with stage IV breast cancer aged ≥70 years between 2010 and 2015 were included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan–Meier plot and log-rank test. Nomograms and risk stratification models were constructed. Patients who underwent surgery had better OS (HR = 0.751, 95% CI [0.668–0.843], P