Effects of Global Warming on the Poleward Heat Transport by Non-Stationary Large-Scale Atmospheric Eddies, and Feedbacks Affecting the Formation of the Arctic Climate

It is a well-known fact that the observed rise in the Arctic near-surface temperature is more than double the increase in global mean temperature. However, the entire scientific picture of the formation of the Arctic amplification has not yet taken final shape and the causes of this phenomenon are still being discussed within the scientific community. Some recent studies suggest that the atmospheric equator-to-pole transport of heat and moisture, and also radiative feedbacks, are among the possible reasons for the Arctic amplification. In this paper, we highlight and summarize some of our research related to assessing the response of climate in the Arctic to global warming and vice versa. Since extratropical transient eddies dominate the meridional transport of sensible and latent heat from low to high latitudes, we estimated the effect of climate change on meridional heat transport by means of the beta-plane model of baroclinic instability. It has been shown that the heat transport from low and middle latitudes to the Arctic by large scale transient eddies increases by about 9% due to global warming, contributing to the polar amplification and thereby a decrease in the extent of the Arctic sea, which, in turn, is an important factor in the formation of the Arctic climate. The main radiative feedback mechanisms affecting the formation of the Arctic climate are also considered and discussed. It was emphasized that the influence of feedbacks depends on a season since the total feedback in the winter season is negative, while in the summer season, it is positive. Thus, further research is required to diminish the uncertainty regarding the character of various feedback mechanisms in the shaping of the Artic climate and, through that, in predicting the extent of Arctic sea ice.