International crude oil price, regulation and asymmetric response of China's gasoline price

Since 2013, China has implemented a new retail price-cap regulation for refined oil together with a quota regulation for crude oil imports due to concerns about the negative impacts of oil price fluctuations. This study aims to explore for the first time the dynamics of China's gasoline price response to international oil market price fluctuations and the domestic price regulation. The analysis was conducted using the panel-asymmetric error correction model based on daily panel data of heterogeneous refiners. It is found that: (1) China's gasoline price exhibits an asymmetric response to the international crude oil price, with a strong, rapid response to crude oil price increases but a delayed and long-lasting response to decreases; (2) the price response to price regulation is symmetric at the industry level but asymmetric among different refiners, with state-owned refiners responding more to a regulated price increase, whereas private refiners respond more to a regulated price decrease; and (3) in the context of crude oil import regulation, China's gasoline price responds symmetrically to fuel oil price changes but asymmetrically to price regulation. This results in distortions in both the oil market and price response dynamics. It is therefore recommended that reforms should be enacted to relax the import quota policy and deregulate prices so as to correct these market distortions and accelerate the development of China's crude oil and refined products markets. •The response asymmetry of China’s gasoline price is explored by introducing trade & price regulation with daily panel data.•Asymmetric response of heterogeneous refiners to price regulation coexists with symmetric response at industry level.•China’s gasoline price responds symmetrically to fuel oil price and asymmetrically to retail price regulation.