Mapping thins to identify active forest management in southern pine plantations using Landsat time series stacks

The southeastern United States is unique in terms of both the intensity and scale of forest management, which includes substantial thinning and other forms of harvesting. Because thinning is not a land use transition, and the disturbance signal is relatively subtle compared to a clear cut, there is a dearth of studies that attempt to detect thinning over large areas. Our goal was to detect pine thins as an indicator of active forest management using Landsat data. Areas which undergo thinning are indicative of active forest management in the region. Our approach uses a machine learning method which combines first-order harmonics and metrics from 3-year Fourier regression of Landsat time series stacks, layers from the Global Forest Change product, and other vetted national products into a random forests model to classify forest thins in the southeastern US. Forest Harvest Inspection Records for Virginia were used for training and validation. Models were successful separating thins from clear cuts and non-harvested pines (overall accuracy 86%, clear cut accuracy 90%, thin accuracy 83% for a simplified 10-predictor variable model). Examination of variable importance illustrates the physical meaning behind the models. The curve fit statistics (R2 or RMSE) of the NDVI, Pan, and SWIR1 harmonic curve fits, which are an indication of a departure from typical vegetation phenology caused by thinning or other disturbances, were consistently among the top predictors. The harmonic regression constant, sine and cosine from the Landsat 8 panchromatic band were also important. These describe the visible reflectance (500–680 nm) phenology over the time period at a high spatial resolution (15 m). The Loss Year from the Global Forest Change product, which is an indication of stand replacing disturbance, was also consistently among the most important variables in the classifiers. High performance computing, such as Google Earth Engine, and analysis-ready data are important for this approach. This work has importance for quantification of actively managed forests in a region of the world where production forestry is the dominant land disturbance signal and a significant economic engine. •Demonstrated ability to separate thins from clear cuts and non-harvested pines.•Harmonic regression predictor variables improve classification of thins.•Panchromatic band of Landsat 8 is important for identification of forest thins.