Information transmission under increasing political tensions—Evidence from the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887–1896

This article studies the effects of increasing political uncertainty on the functioning of German futures markets. We examine a unique event, namely the discussions around and the final coming into force of the German Exchange Act of 1896. Using static and time‐varying vector error correction models, the empirical analysis shows that, although early futures markets exhibit a high degree of operational efficiency, increasing political tensions were related to a declining dominance of the futures market in the price discovery process. In summary, we provide a strong illustration of the negative consequences of misplaced regulatory attempts stemming from powerful political interests.