Substitution threat between Airbnb and hotels: Myth or reality?

The rise of peer-to-peer accommodation platforms in the tourism and hospitality industry has created an interesting and growing debate around the threats of substitution between them and traditional hotels. Previous studies have provided contradictory findings. Here we address the issue by analyzing the degree of synchronization between the daily occupancy of hotels and that of Airbnb listings in Milan, Italy, over a period of four years. The findings show that the two series are widely desynchronized during the week, on workdays and trade-fair days, when hotels work prevalently within the business segment, and when Airbnb listings mainly accommodate leisure guests. By contrast, a partial synchronization (and therefore a potential substitution threat) is revealed during weekends and holidays. •We analyze the possible substitution threats between hotels and Airbnb listings.•The data are daily occupancies over four years for the city of Milan, Italy.•Mutual information is used for assessing synchronization between the series.•The findings show a partial synchronization only for weekends and holidays.