Evolution and prospects of the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) package ecosystem

Free and open source software package ecosystems have existed for a long time, but such collaborative development practice has surged in recent years. One of the oldest and most popular package ecosystems is Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), the repository of packages of the statistical language R, a popular statistical computing environment. CRAN stores a large number of packages that are updated regularly and depend on many other packages in a complex graph of relations. As the repository grows, its sustainability could be threatened by that complexity or nonuniform evolution of some packages. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the evolution of the CRAN repository in the last 20 years, considering the laws of software evolution and the effect of CRAN's policies on such development. Results show how the progress of CRAN is consistent with the laws of continuous growth and change and how there seems to be a relevant increase in complexity in recent years. Significant challenges are raising related to the scale and scope of software package managers and the services they provide; understanding how they change over time and what might endanger their sustainability are key factors for their future improvement, maintenance, policies, and, eventually, sustainability of the ecosystem. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the evolution of the CRAN repository in the last 20 years, considering the laws of software evolution and the effect of CRAN's policies on such development. Results show how the progress of CRAN is consistent with the laws of continuous growth and change and how there seems to be a relevant increase in complexity in recent years.