Deciphering the evolution and forcing mechanisms of glaciation over the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen during the past 20,000 years

•We present a modeled scenario on the evolution of glaciation over the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen for the past 20 ka.•Summer temperature dominates the overall evolution of glaciation, with precipitation modulating the extent and change rate.•The timing and extent of glaciation varies greatly across the orogen. The evolution of past glaciations over the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen and their links with climate change remain elusive, partially owing to the immense scale of the orogen preventing the investigation of all areas. Numerical modeling aids in filling the gaps, verifying the geologic observations, and exploring forcing factors. Based on a transient climate-ice sheet simulation for the past 20 kyr, we demonstrate that the maximum extent of glaciation over the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen occurs around the last glacial maximum (LGM; defined here at ∼20 ka), with expanded ice caps and extensive valley glaciers and being equivalent to a fourfold/sixfold expansion of today's glacier area/volume. The glacier extent shrinks rapidly after the LGM and reaches the minimum around ∼8–7 ka, followed by a slight long-term advancing trend afterwards. Our results suggest a dominant role of summer temperature in controlling the overall trend of glacier response, with precipitation generally modulating the regional extent of glaciation. However, the timing and extent of glaciation in the simulations varies across the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen on millennial timescale, especially between the monsoon-influenced southern and westerly-influenced western parts, further confirming previous speculations based on glacial geologic records. Despite the uncertainties in the simulations and the discrepancy in glaciation between the simulations and the glacial geologic evidence (e.g., 10Be ages), our results provide additional clues on the relationship between climatic change and glacier response. In addition, the modeling aids in advancing our knowledge of the paleoglaciological history of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen.