Explaining Advocacy Coalition Change with Policy Feedback

Despite the prominence of exogenous factors in theories of policy change, the precise mechanisms that link such factors to policy change remain elusive: The effects of exogenous factors on the politics underlying policy change are not sufficiently conceptualized and empirically analyzed. To address this gap, we propose to distinguish between truly exogenous factors and policy outcomes to better understand policy change. Specifically, we combine the Advocacy Coalition Framework with policy feedback theory to conceptualize a complete feedback loop among policy, policy outcomes, and subsequent politics. Aiming at theory‐building, we use policy feedback mechanisms to explain why advocacy coalitions change over time. Empirically, we conduct a longitudinal single case study on policy‐induced technological change in the German energy subsystem, an extreme case of policy outcomes, from 1983 to 2013. First, using discourse network analysis, we identify four patterns of actor movements, explaining coalition decline and growth. Second, using process tracing, we detect four policy feedback mechanisms explaining these four actor movements. With this inductive mixed‐methods approach, we build a conceptual framework in which policy outcomes affect subsequent politics through feedback mechanisms. We develop propositions on how coalition change and feedback mechanisms explain four ideal‐typical trajectories of policy change. 尽管外源性因素在政策变化理论中存在重要性，但将这类因素与政策变化进行连接的精确机制还难以理解：外源性因素对政策变化背后的政治所产生的效果还没有被完全地概念化，也没有经过实证分析。为填补这一研究空白，作者提出区分真实外源性因素和政策结果，以更好地理解政策变化。特别地，作者结合倡议联盟框架（ACF）和政策反馈理论，以在政策、政策结果、后续政治之间概念化一个完整的反馈环。致力于理论建设，作者使用政策反馈机制，解释为何倡议联盟会随时间发生变化。实证上，作者实施了一项纵向单一案例分析，研究德国能源子系统中由政策引起的技术变革，它是一项关于1983年至2013年政策结果的极端案例。第一，通过话语网络分析，作者识别了行动者进展的四种模式，解释联盟的减少和增加。第二，通过过程跟踪，作者探测出四种诠释行动者进展的政策反馈机制。通过这一对不同结果进行归纳的方法，作者建立一项概念框架，政策结果能从中通过反馈机制来影响后续政治。就联盟变化和反馈机制如何能解释四种关于政策变化的理想‐典型轨迹，作者提出了建议。 A pesar de la importancia de los factores exógenos en las teorías del cambio de políticas, los mecanismos precisos que vinculan dichos factores con el cambio de políticas siguen siendo esquivos: los efectos de los factores exógenos en la política subyacente al cambio de políticas no están suficientemente conceptualizados y analizados empíricamente. Para abordar esta brecha, proponemos distinguir entre factores verdaderamente exógenos y resultados de políticas para comprender mejor el cambio de políticas. Específicamente, combinamos Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) con la teoría de retroalimentación de política