Predisposing factors’ effects on mortality of oak (Quercus) and hickory (Carya) species in mature forests undergoing mesophication in Appalachian Ohio

Background Mature oak ( Quercus spp.) and hickory ( Carya spp.) trees are gradually being replaced by more shade-tolerant tree species across the eastern U.S., likely due to fire suppression and increased precipitation. Oaks and hickories are highly valuable to wildlife; therefore, studying their mortality patterns can provide information on the longevity of habitat quality for many animal species. Oak mortality has most often been studied following large oak decline events, but background mortality rates in forests with aging oak and hickory canopies warrant equal attention, especially in the context of widespread oak and hickory regeneration failure. Methods We studied background mortality rates of five oak and one hickory species over a 23–25 year time period (1993–1995 to 2018), using 82 1/20th hectare permanent plots on the Marietta Unit of the Wayne National Forest in southeastern Ohio. We calculated mortality rates based on remeasurement of individual trees for white oak ( Quercus alba ), chestnut oak ( Quercus montana ), northern red oak (Quercus rubra ), black oak ( Quercus velutina ), scarlet oak ( Quercus coccinea ), and pignut hickory ( Carya glabra ). For each of these species other than scarlet oak, we also modeled the relationships of mortality probability with a priori topographic, soil, stand structural, and individual tree covariates, using a mixed-effects logistic regression framework. Results The species with the highest mortality rate was scarlet oak (61.3%), followed by northern red oak (41.4%), black oak (26.7%), pignut hickory (23.9%), white oak (23.4%), and chestnut oak (19.1%). In our models, northern red oak mortality was associated with more mesic slope positions, shallower solums, more acidic soils, and older stand ages. Pignut hickory and chestnut oak mortality rates were associated with higher basal areas on the plot, while white oak mortality showed the opposite pattern. Conclusions Our data suggest that red oak subgenus trees in mature forests of our area will become increasingly uncommon relative to white oak subgenus trees, as the result of higher mortality rates likely related to the shorter lifespans of these species. Particularly vulnerable areas may include more mesic topographic positions, shallower or more acidic soil, and older stands. Since maintaining oak subgenus diversity is beneficial to wildlife diversity in the eastern U.S., managers in areas with extensive mature mixed-oak forests could choose to favor the