A density-dependent matrix model and its applications in optimizing harvest schemes

Based on temporal data collected from 36 re-measured plots, transition probabilities of trees from a diameter class to a higher class were analyzed for the broad-leaved-Korean pine forest in the Changbai Mountains. It was found that the transition probabilities were related not only to diameter size but also to the total basal area of trees with the diameter class. This paper demonstrates the development of a density-dependent matrix model, DM, and a series of simulations with it for forest stands with different conditions under different harvest schemes. After validations with independent field data, this model proved a suitable tool for optimization analysis of harvest schemes on computers. The optimum harvest scheme(s) can be determined by referring to stand growth, total timbers harvested, and size diversity changes over time. Three user-friendly interfaces were built with a forest management decision support system FORESTAR(R) for easy operations of DM by forest managers. This paper also summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of DM.