热带强火山喷发对全球极端温度和极端降水影响的数值模拟研究

This study investigates the influences of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on daily temperature and precip-itation extreme events using long-term simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) and the Community Earth System Model version 1.1 (CESM1). The results indicate that the occurrences of daily hot ex-tremes and daily heavy precipitation extremes decrease over most parts of the world in the peak forcing years of SVEs. Due to the volcanic cooling effect, the average probability of daily hot extremes decreases by approximately 50％ across the globe. The decrease in intensity is stronger for midlatitude land regions and tropical South America. In contrast, daily cold extremes occur more frequently over most parts of continental regions. Globally, a cold ex-treme event expected once every 3 years under non-volcanic conditions can be expected every 1.5 years on average in the peak forcing years. Overall, the SVE-induced cooling effect plays a dominant role in regulating daily col