Forecast of Consumption and Emission of HFC-134a Used in the Mobile Air-conditioner Sector in China

HFC-134a is the most important alternative to CFC-12 used in the mobile air-conditioner sector in China. The con- sumption of HFC-134a has been increasing rapidly in recent years. It becomes the most consumed HFC in the sector. Selecting 2005 as the base line year, future consumption and emission amounts of HFC-134a are estimated through an analysis of a combined scenario： 1） replacement by non-HFC-134a blends, 2） good practice in servicing, 3） technology promotion, and 4） government policies on control of HFC-134a emissions. The analysis shows that HFC-134a consumption and emissions will continue to increase in the next 10 years. The projected HFC-134a consumption will approach 20,150 t and 34,875 t in 2010 and 2015 respectively, while the estimated emission amounts will reach 16,065 t and 30,186 t （i.e., 21 Mt CO2-eq and 39 Mt CO2-eq emissions） correspondingly. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, the expected emission reductions in 2010 and 2015 will range between 6.7 Mt CO2-eq and 13.0 Mt CO2-eq.