毕业论文匿名评审制度中的“误判”问题
尽管越来越多的高校采用了毕业论文校外专家匿名评审制度，但对此制度的实践过程尚缺少系统的反思。基于贝叶斯定理，利用基础的数据模拟方法，该研究试图说明即使外审专家具有比较高的论文鉴别能力，完全基于外审专家意见来判断毕业论文质量仍会存在相当大的“错判”风险。毕业生总体论文质量越高，外审意见为不合格的论文中高质量的论文比例亦越高。随着外审专家论文鉴别能力的下降，此类错判风险的概率也随之升高。基于基本统计模拟，研究讨论了多人评判（一票否决以及少数服从多数两种情况）、多轮评判以及多类别评判结论等更为复杂的情况。由于毕业论文评判直接关乎学生是否能顺利毕业以及未来的发展，如何控制错判风险应当得到学校管理方的高...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Fu dan jiao yu lun tan = Fudan education forum 2021-03, Vol.19 (2), p.070-077 |
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| creator | 胡安宁(HU Anning) 李东雨(LI Dongyu) 陈滔(CHEN Tao) |
| description | 尽管越来越多的高校采用了毕业论文校外专家匿名评审制度，但对此制度的实践过程尚缺少系统的反思。基于贝叶斯定理，利用基础的数据模拟方法，该研究试图说明即使外审专家具有比较高的论文鉴别能力，完全基于外审专家意见来判断毕业论文质量仍会存在相当大的“错判”风险。毕业生总体论文质量越高，外审意见为不合格的论文中高质量的论文比例亦越高。随着外审专家论文鉴别能力的下降，此类错判风险的概率也随之升高。基于基本统计模拟，研究讨论了多人评判（一票否决以及少数服从多数两种情况）、多轮评判以及多类别评判结论等更为复杂的情况。由于毕业论文评判直接关乎学生是否能顺利毕业以及未来的发展，如何控制错判风险应当得到学校管理方的高度重视 |
| doi_str_mv | 10.3969/j.issn.1672-0059.2021.02.011 |
| format | Article |
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Based on the Bayes' Theorem, this article uses the basic data simulation to show that, evaluating graduation thesis solely based on the external reviews would have considerable risk of erroneous judgement, even under the condition that external reviewers have outstanding capabilities of evaluating the quality of thesis. The better the quality of graduation thesis, the higher the probability of high-quality thesis among those rejected by external reviewers. With the decline of external reviewer's evaluating capabilities, the probability of the ris</abstract><cop>大陸</cop><pub>復旦大學</pub><doi>10.3969/j.issn.1672-0059.2021.02.011</doi><tpages>8</tpages></addata></record> |
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| source | 国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库 (National Social Sciences Database) |
| title | 毕业论文匿名评审制度中的“误判”问题 |
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