Changes of Extreme Precipitation and its Associated Mechanisms in Northwest China

Characterized by scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems, Northwest China (NWC) has experienced a climate shift from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions since the 1980s that has garnered extensive concern in recent years. In this study, the variability in extreme precipitation (EP) during 1961–2016 in different climate zones of NWC and the possible mechanisms for this variation are investigated. The results show that the EP trends significantly increased in most of the westerly zone (WZ) and plateau zone (PZ), while the EP trends did not significantly decrease in the monsoon zone (MZ). The start dates of extreme precipitation (SDEP) and end dates of extreme precipitation (EDEP) advanced and were postponed, respectively, in the WZ and PZ, while the opposite occurred in the MZ. Summer atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and atmospheric instability over NWC varied greatly with the interdecadal shift in EP before and after 1986. During 1986–2016, upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence occurred in the MZ and PZ, which strengthened ascending flow. In addition, the summer water vapor and atmospheric instability increased in the WZ and PZ. These characteristics created favorable conditions for increased occurrences of EP in the WZ and PZ in summer. Conversely, the upper-level convergence and lower-level divergence in the MZ strengthened descending flow. Decreases in summer water vapor and atmospheric instability occurred in the MZ after 1986. Hence, the environmental conditions in the MZ may have prevented the occurrence and development of EP in summer during 1986–2016.