An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization
Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent c...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020-09, Vol.37 (9), p.939-950 |
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| creator | Li, Mingkui Zhang, Shaoqing Wu, Lixin Lin, Xiaopei Chang, Ping Danabasoglu, Gohkan Wei, Zhiqiang Yu, Xiaolin Hu, Huiqin Ma, Xiaohui Ma, Weiwei Zhao, Haoran Jia, Dongning Liu, Xin Mao, Kai Ma, Youwei Jiang, Yingjing Wang, Xue Liu, Guangliang Chen, Yuhu |
| description | Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9 |
| format | Article |
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It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0256-1530</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1861-9533</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Heidelberg: Science Press</publisher><subject>Air ; Air land interactions ; Air-sea interaction ; Atmospheric models ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Boundary layers ; Climate and Weather Extremes ; Cyclones ; Data assimilation ; Data collection ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; High resolution ; Hurricanes ; Meteorology ; Ocean models ; Original Paper ; Physics ; Planetary boundary layer ; Resolution ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Surface temperature ; Tropical climate ; Tropical cyclone formation ; Tropical cyclones ; Weather forecasting ; Wind shear</subject><ispartof>Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2020-09, Vol.37 (9), p.939-950</ispartof><rights>Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020</rights><rights>Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020.</rights><rights>Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c350t-9be6b1ef4701e6076a8b56127588e9447e26ad95fe2a200ca1e28dc1b67f19133</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c350t-9be6b1ef4701e6076a8b56127588e9447e26ad95fe2a200ca1e28dc1b67f19133</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Uhttp://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/images/PeriodicalImages/dqkxjz-e/dqkxjz-e.jpg</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Li, Mingkui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Shaoqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Lixin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lin, Xiaopei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chang, Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Danabasoglu, Gohkan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wei, Zhiqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yu, Xiaolin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hu, Huiqin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Xiaohui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Weiwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Haoran</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jia, Dongning</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mao, Kai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Youwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Yingjing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Xue</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Guangliang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, Yuhu</creatorcontrib><title>An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization</title><title>Advances in atmospheric sciences</title><addtitle>Adv. Atmos. Sci</addtitle><description>Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions.</description><subject>Air</subject><subject>Air land interactions</subject><subject>Air-sea interaction</subject><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Boundary layers</subject><subject>Climate and Weather Extremes</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Data assimilation</subject><subject>Data collection</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>High resolution</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Ocean models</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Planetary boundary layer</subject><subject>Resolution</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical cyclone formation</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><subject>Wind 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Xiaolin</creator><creator>Hu, Huiqin</creator><creator>Ma, Xiaohui</creator><creator>Ma, Weiwei</creator><creator>Zhao, Haoran</creator><creator>Jia, Dongning</creator><creator>Liu, Xin</creator><creator>Mao, Kai</creator><creator>Ma, Youwei</creator><creator>Jiang, Yingjing</creator><creator>Wang, Xue</creator><creator>Liu, Guangliang</creator><creator>Chen, Yuhu</creator><general>Science Press</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><general>Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao 266237, China%Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, MOE, Institute for Advanced Ocean Study, College of Ocean and Atmosphere,Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (DOMES),Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China</general><general>Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao 266237, China</general><general>National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA%Pilot National 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High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction(iHESP), Qingdao 266237, China</general><general>Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, USA%International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction(iHESP), Qingdao 266237, China</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>2B.</scope><scope>4A8</scope><scope>92I</scope><scope>93N</scope><scope>PSX</scope><scope>TCJ</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20200901</creationdate><title>An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization</title><author>Li, Mingkui ; Zhang, Shaoqing ; Wu, Lixin ; Lin, Xiaopei ; Chang, Ping ; Danabasoglu, Gohkan ; Wei, Zhiqiang ; Yu, Xiaolin ; Hu, Huiqin ; Ma, Xiaohui ; Ma, Weiwei ; Zhao, Haoran ; Jia, Dongning ; Liu, Xin ; Mao, Kai ; 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layer</topic><topic>Resolution</topic><topic>Sea surface</topic><topic>Sea surface temperature</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>Tropical climate</topic><topic>Tropical cyclone formation</topic><topic>Tropical cyclones</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><topic>Wind shear</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Li, Mingkui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Shaoqing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wu, Lixin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lin, Xiaopei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chang, Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Danabasoglu, Gohkan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wei, Zhiqiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yu, Xiaolin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hu, Huiqin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Xiaohui</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Weiwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao, Haoran</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jia, Dongning</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Xin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mao, Kai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Youwei</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiang, Yingjing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wang, Xue</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Guangliang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, Yuhu</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong</collection><collection>WANFANG Data Centre</collection><collection>Wanfang Data Journals</collection><collection>万方数据期刊 - 香港版</collection><collection>China Online Journals (COJ)</collection><collection>China Online Journals (COJ)</collection><jtitle>Advances in atmospheric sciences</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Li, Mingkui</au><au>Zhang, Shaoqing</au><au>Wu, Lixin</au><au>Lin, Xiaopei</au><au>Chang, Ping</au><au>Danabasoglu, Gohkan</au><au>Wei, Zhiqiang</au><au>Yu, Xiaolin</au><au>Hu, Huiqin</au><au>Ma, Xiaohui</au><au>Ma, Weiwei</au><au>Zhao, Haoran</au><au>Jia, Dongning</au><au>Liu, Xin</au><au>Mao, Kai</au><au>Ma, Youwei</au><au>Jiang, Yingjing</au><au>Wang, Xue</au><au>Liu, Guangliang</au><au>Chen, Yuhu</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization</atitle><jtitle>Advances in atmospheric sciences</jtitle><stitle>Adv. Atmos. Sci</stitle><date>2020-09-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>37</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>939</spage><epage>950</epage><pages>939-950</pages><issn>0256-1530</issn><eissn>1861-9533</eissn><abstract>Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions.</abstract><cop>Heidelberg</cop><pub>Science Press</pub><doi>10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9</doi><tpages>12</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2020-09, Vol.37 (9), p.939-950 |
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| subjects | Air Air land interactions Air-sea interaction Atmospheric models Atmospheric Sciences Boundary layers Climate and Weather Extremes Cyclones Data assimilation Data collection Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics/Geodesy High resolution Hurricanes Meteorology Ocean models Original Paper Physics Planetary boundary layer Resolution Sea surface Sea surface temperature Surface temperature Tropical climate Tropical cyclone formation Tropical cyclones Weather forecasting Wind shear |
| title | An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization |
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