Relationship between environment policy and technical transformation： industry pollution control in Three Gorges Reservoir

Ecological objective promotes local government who is in a reservoir area adopting new environmental policies which encourage firms to save energy and reduce emissions. Based on real option theory, we characterized the arrival of new environmental policy as a Poisson jump process. Under the situation that neither the policy arrival time nor contents can be determined, with the real option theory, we focused on problems for firms to decide best investment timing and scale, provided the cumulative probability distribution function of investment timing, and gave a numerical analysis. By analyzing the relationship between policy and investment decision, we found a perverse result that the high subsidy does not always encourage investment all the time, which can be a valuable reference for government to control industry pollution and make reasonable policies.