Multi-scale modelling of land use change dynamics in Ecuador

A spatially explicit multi-scale approach to land use change modelling is explained and demonstrated. It is based on the empirical description of the biogeophysical and socio-economic drivers of land use at different aggregation levels, using a system analytical approach for the characterisation of agro-ecosystems. Sub-national changes in land use following changes in the national demand for agricultural commodities are modelled on the basis of complex interactions in time and space and the competition between alternative land uses. In a multi-scale allocation procedure, land use changes are calculated for cells of a geographical grid with a maximum resolution of 5×5 min. The model was applied to Ecuador. Land use change allocation in the model was validated with historical data. A hypothetical future base-line scenario of increasing demands for agricultural commodities was used to demonstrate how dynamics of land use are modelled. The results may be used to detect so-called ‘hot-spots’. These are dynamic areas where impacts of land use change on the natural resource base can be expected. The model offers scope for comparison of different scenarios in which alternative development paths can be defined, for example, with respect to changes in food demands, technology levels, infrastructure, soil suitability or the protection of natural areas.