A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low‐input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)‐ and high‐input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Global change biology 2017-03, Vol.23 (3), p.1258-1281 |
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Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low‐input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)‐ and high‐input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P |
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ISSN: | 1354-1013 1365-2486 |
DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.13411 |