Risk of acute deterioration and care complexity individual factors associated with health outcomes in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: a multicentre cohort study

Background: Evidence about the impact of systematic nursing surveillance on risk of acute deterioration of patients with COVID-19 and the effects of care complexity factors on inpatient outcomes is scarce. The aim of this study was to determine the association between acute deterioration risk, care complexity factors and unfavourable outcomes in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Methods: A multicentre cohort study was conducted from 1 to 31 March 2020 at seven hospitals in Catalonia. All adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospitals and with a complete minimum data set were recruited retrospectively. Patients were classified based on the presence or absence of a composite unfavourable outcome (in-hospital mortality and adverse events). The main measures included risk of acute deterioration (as measured using the VIDA early warning system) and care complexity factors. All data were obtained blinded from electronic health records. Multivariate logistic analysis was performed to identify the VIDA score and complexity factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. Results: Out of a total of 1176 patients with COVID-19, 506 (43%) experienced an unfavourable outcome during hospitalisation. The frequency of unfavourable outcomes rose with increasing risk of acute deterioration as measured by the VIDA score. Risk factors independently associated with unfavourable outcomes were chronic underlying disease (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.72; p