Evaluating the Accuracy of Regional Economic Impact Estimates: Considering a 2013 Beef Plant Closure in Texas

Many studies rely on regional economic impact analysis to estimate the larger effects of an event on a community, such as a plant opening or closure. However, few conduct an ex post analysis to consider how close the estimates were to actual economic events that ensued. This study examines the accuracy of a previous impact analysis of the closure of a Texas beef packing plant. The challenges of validating economic impact studies are demonstrated and several suggestions are offered for improving ex ante and ex post modeling efforts to help future researchers maintain the credibility of economic impact studies.