Market Responses to Export Restrictions from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks

Export restrictions often exacerbate the direct production losses and control costs from infectious animal disease outbreaks by reducing the pool of consumers of animal products. However, the uncertain timing and the varying extent of the trade restrictions make it challenging to measure these indirect costs of disease outbreaks. We examine two outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (2004 and 2014-2015) that saw few broiler chickens lost but significant trade disruptions from embargoes. We evaluate the timing and estimate the magnitude of the economic shocks from these embargoes, finding brief but considerable trade declines and distinct economic responses to each outbreak.