Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture 2011-2021

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Medium Term Outlook (MTO) covering the period 2011 to 2021. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2011. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged in the future it is therefore an extrapolation of what could occur based on current trends and underlying macroeconomic projections. In particular, there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2011 In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in November 2011.