The Perils of Peace: Civil War Peace Agreements and Military Coups

How do militaries respond to peace after civil war? The literature gives us a good understanding of how peace agreements affect the chances of civil war recurrence. However, it misses another aspect of postwar conflict: military coups. I argue that civil war peace agreements increase the risk of a coup, as the military anticipates threats to its interests. Military integration provisions pose a particularly strong challenge. These provisions may entail the dissolution and reconstitution of the military, and the military will have to agree to work alongside former enemies. Facing this, the military may attempt a coup. I test this theory using data on civil war peace agreements and coup attempts and present two main findings: in a global sample of states, those that have recently signed peace agreements are much more likely to see coups, and agreements with integration provisions are particularly likely to lead to coups.