Improving lithium dose prediction using population pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenomics: a cohort genome-wide association study in Sweden

Lithium is the most effective treatment for bipolar disorder, resulting in strong suicide prevention effects. The therapeutic range of lithium, however, is narrow and treatment initiation requires individual titration to address inter-individual variability. We aimed to improve lithium dose prediction using clinical and genomic data. We performed a population pharmacokinetic study followed by a genome-wide association study (GWAS), including two clinical Swedish cohorts. Participants in cohort 1 were from specialised outpatient clinics at Huddinge Hospital, in Stockholm, Sweden, and participants in cohort 2 were identified using the Swedish National Quality Registry for Bipolar disorder (BipoläR). Patients who received a lithium dose corresponding to at least one tablet of lithium sulphate (6 mmol) per day and had clinically relevant plasma concentrations of lithium were included in the study. Data on age, sex, bodyweight, height, creatinine concentration, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), lithium preparation, number of tablets of lithium per day, serum lithium concentration, and medications affecting kidney function (C09 antihypertensives, C03 [except C03D] sodium-retaining diuretics, and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) were obtained retrospectively for several timepoints when possible from electronic health records, BipoläR, and the Swedish prescription registry. The median time between timepoints was 1·07 years for cohort 1 and 1·09 years for cohort 2. The primary outcome of interest was the natural logarithm of total body clearance for lithium (CLLi) associated with the clinical variables. The residual effects after accounting for age and sex, representing the individual-level effects (CLLi,age/sex), were used as the dependent variable in a GWAS. 2357 patients who were administered lithium (1423 women [60·4%] and 934 men [39·6%]; mean age 53·6 years [range 17–89], mainly of European descent) were included and 5627 data points were obtained. Age (variance explained [R2]: R2cohort1=0·41 and R2cohort2=0·31; both p