Long-term Visit-to-Visit Variability in Hemoglobin A1c and Kidney-Related Outcomes in Persons With Diabetes

To characterize associations between long-term visit-to-visit variability of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and risk of adverse kidney outcomes in patients with diabetes. Observational study. 93,598 adults with diabetes undergoing routine care in Stockholm, Sweden. Categories of baseline and time-varying HbA1c variability score (HVS, the percentage of total HbA1c measures that vary by>0.5% [5.5mmol/mol] during a 3-year window): 0-20%, 21%-40%, 41%-60%, 61%-80%, and 81%-100%, with 0-20% as the reference group. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (composite of>50% estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline and kidney failure), acute kidney disease (AKI by clinical diagnosis or transient creatinine elevations according to KDIGO criteria), and worsening of albuminuria. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with persons showing low HbA1c variability (HVS 0-20%), any increase in variability was associated with a higher risk of adverse kidney outcomes beyond mean HbA1c. For example, for patients with a baseline HbA1c variability of 81%-100%, the adjusted HR was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.47-1.74) for CKD progression, 1.23 [1.16-1.3] for AKI, and 1.28 [1.21-1.36] for worsening of albuminuria. The results were consistent across subgroups (diabetes subtypes, baseline eGFR, or albuminuria categories), in time-varying analyses and in sensitivity analyses including time-weighted average HbA1c or alternative metrics of variability. Observational study, limitations of claims data, lack of information on diet, body mass index, medication changes, and diabetes duration. Higher long-term visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is consistently associated with the risks of CKD progression, AKI, and worsening of albuminuria. The evidence for current guideline recommendations derives from clinical trials that focus on a single HbA1c as the definitive measure of efficacy of an intervention. However, long-term visit-to-visit fluctuations of HbA1c may provide additional value in the prediction of future kidney complications. We evaluated the long-term fluctuations in glycemic control in almost 100,000 persons with diabetes undergoing routine care in Stockholm, Sweden. We observed that higher long-term HbA1c fluctuation is consistently associated with the risks of chronic kidney disease progression, worsening of albuminuria and acute kidney injury. This finding supports a role for long-term glycemic variability in the development of kidney complications and illustrates the