Development of equations for predicting methane emissions from ruminants

Ruminants contribute to global warming by releasing methane (CH4) gas by enteric fermentation. This has increased interest among animal scientists to develop and improve equations predicting CH4 production. The objectives of the current study were to collect a data set from respiration studies and to evaluate the effects of dietary and animal factors on CH4 production from diets that can safely be fed to dairy cows, using a mixed model regression analysis. Therefore, diets containing more than 75% concentrate on a dry matter (DM) basis were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included a total of 298 treatment means from 52 published papers with 207 cattle and 91 sheep diets. Dry matter intake per kilogram of body weight (DMIBW), organic matter digestibility estimated at the maintenance level of feeding (OMDm), and dietary concentrations of neutral detergent fiber (NDF), nonfiber carbohydrates (NFC), and ether extract (EE) were the variables of the best-fit equation predicting CH4 energy (CH4-E) as a proportion of gross energy intake (GE): CH4-E/GE (kJ/MJ)=−0.6 (±12.76) − 0.70 (±0.072) × DMIBW (g/kg) + 0.076 (±0.0118) × OMDm (g/kg) − 0.13 (±0.020) × EE (g/kg of DM) + 0.046 (±0.0097) × NDF (g/kg of DM) + 0.044 (±0.0094) × NFC (g/kg of DM), resulting in the lowest root mean square error adjusted for random study effect (adj. RMSE=3.26 kJ/MJ). Total CH4 production (L/d) in the cattle data set was closely related to DM intake. However, further inclusion of other variables improved the model: CH4 (L/d)=−64.0 (±35.0) + 26.0 (±1.02) × DM intake (kg/d) − 0.61 (±0.132) × DMI2(centered) + 0.25 (±0.051) × OMDm (g/kg) − 66.4 (±8.22) × EE intake (kg of DM/d) − 45.0 (±23.50) × NFC/(NDF + NFC), with adj. RMSE of 21.1 L/d. Cross-validation of the CH4-E/GE equation [observed CH4-E/GE=0.96 (±0.103) × predicted CH4-E/GE + 2.3 (±7.05); R2=0.85, adj. RMSE=3.38 kJ/MJ] indicated that differences in CH4 production between the diets could be predicted accurately. We conclude that feed intake is the main determinant of total CH4 production and that CH4-E/GE is negatively related to feeding level and dietary fat concentration and positively to diet digestibility, whereas dietary carbohydrate composition has only minor effects.