Potential effects of intensive forestry on biomass production and total carbon balance in north-central Sweden

► We model effects of intensive forest management on total carbon balance in Sweden. ► Forest production increases by up to 26% and annual harvest by up to 19%. ► Carbon stocks in living tree biomass, forest soil and wood products all increase. ► Substitution use of forest biomass has the greatest single effect on carbon balance. ► Net carbon emission reduction of up to 132 Tg is possible during the next 100 years. We quantify the potential effects of intensive forest management activities on forest production in north-central Sweden over the next 100 years, and calculate the potential climate change mitigation feedback effect due to the resulting increased carbon stock and increased use of forest products. We analyze and compare four different forest management scenarios ( Reference, Environment, Production, and Maximum), all of which include the expected effects of climate change based on SRES B2 scenario. Forest management practices are intensified in Production scenario, and further intensified in Maximum scenario. Four different models, BIOMASS, HUGIN, Q-model, and Substitution model, were used to quantify net primary production, forest production and harvest potential, soil carbon, and biomass substitution of fossil fuels and non-wood materials, respectively. After integrating the models, our results show that intensive forestry may increase forest production by up to 26% and annual harvest by up to 19%, compared to the Reference scenario. The greatest single effect on the carbon balance is from using increased biomass production to substitute for fossil fuels and energy intensive materials. Carbon stocks in living tree biomass, forest soil and wood products also increase. In total, a net carbon emission reduction of up to 132 Tg (for Maximum scenario) is possible during the next 100 years due to intensive forest management in two Swedish counties, Jämtland and Västernorrland.