Future projection for forest management suggests a decrease in the availability of nesting habitats for a mature-forest-nesting raptor

•Landscape simulation tools were used to assess future trends of forest and nesting habitat of raptor.•The availability of habitat for Lesser Spotted Eagle is expected to decrease during next decades in Lithuania.•Habitat will decrease because of current age structure of forest and forestry.•Setting aside enough nesting habitats - a key measure of Lesser Spotted Eagle long-term protection.•The simulations of forestry together with habitats could be universally used for timely adoption of conservation measures. The demand for timber, bioenergy feedstock and other forest products, leading to intensified forest harvesting, is expected to increase in the coming decades in European Union. A reduction in the delivery of forest ecosystem services and, specifically, biodiversity, including the provision of habitats for mature-forest-dwelling raptors, has been attributed to the intensification of forest exploitation. Therefore, in order to adopt adequate conservation measures to create a timely buffer against the consequences of increased harvesting, it is critically important to understand how the availability of nesting habitats for protected species will fluctuate in the future landscape.In this study, using the LandSim tool, we modelled the dynamics of the forests and nesting habitat availability for the forest-nesting raptor, the lesser spotted eagle Clanga pomarina, for the next 50 years in eastern Lithuania, Central Europe. Our findings indicate that the share of forests available for final harvesting is expected to increase rapidly in the coming decades due to a large amount of forest stands reaching a mature age, if current forest management practices, despite them being considered as relatively conservative, are continued. As a consequence, the availability of nesting habitats will constantly decrease in nesting territories, as well as elsewhere in the landscape, in the coming decades. We suggest that species conservation strategies should not only incorporate directly targeted measures to protect nest sites from destruction and disturbance, but also, at the very least, preserve a sufficient amount of nesting habitats in areas inhabited by eagle pairs and, at best, at the landscape scale.