Validation of a breast cancer assay for radiotherapy omission: an individual participant data meta-analysis

There are currently no molecular tests to identify individual breast cancers where radiotherapy (RT) offers no benefit. Profile for the Omission of Local Adjuvant Radiotherapy (POLAR) is a 16-gene molecular signature developed to identify low risk cancers where RT will not further reduce recurrence rates. An individual participant data meta-analysis was performed in 623 cases of node-negative ER+/HER2-negative early breast cancer enrolled in three RT randomized trials for whom primary tumor material was available for analysis. A Cox proportional hazards model on time to locoregional recurrence (LRR) was used to test the interaction between POLAR score and RT. 429 (69%) patients' tumors had a high POLAR score and 194 (31%) had a low score. Patients with high POLAR score had, in the absence of RT, a 10-year cumulative incidence of LRR: 20% (15%-26%) vs 5% (2%-11%) for those with a low score. Patients with a high POLAR score had a large benefit from RT (hazard ratio [HR] for RT vs no RT: 0.37 [0.23-0.60], p