Association of plasma P-tau181 with memory decline in non-demented adults

Abstract Alzheimer’s disease is the leading cause of dementia worldwide and is characterized by a long preclinical phase in which amyloid-β and tau accumulate in the absence of cognitive decline. In vivo biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease are expensive, invasive and inaccessible, yet are critical for accurate disease diagnosis and patient management. Recent ultrasensitive methods to measure plasma phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181) display strong correlations with tau positron emission tomography, p-tau181 in CSF, and tau pathology at autopsy. The clinical utility of plasma-based p-tau181 biomarkers is unclear. In a longitudinal multicentre observational study, we assessed 1113 non-demented individuals (509 cognitively unimpaired elderly and 604 individuals with mild cognitive impairment) from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative who underwent neuropsychological assessments and were evaluated for plasma p-tau181. The primary outcome was a memory composite z-score. Mixed-effect models assessed rates of memory decline in relation to baseline plasma p-tau181, and whether plasma p-tau181 significantly predicted memory decline beyond widely available clinical and genetic data (age, sex, years of education, cardiovascular and metabolic conditions, and APOEε4 status). Participants were followed for a median of 4.1 years. Baseline plasma p-tau181 was associated with lower baseline memory (β estimate: −0.49, standard error: 0.06, t-value: −7.97), as well as faster rates of memory decline (β estimate: −0.11, standard error: 0.01, t-value: −7.37). Moreover, the inclusion of plasma p-tau181 resulted in improved prediction of memory decline beyond clinical and genetic data (marginal R2 of 16.7–23%, χ2 = 100.81, P