Lifetime Risk of Primary Total Hip Replacement Surgery for Osteoarthritis From 2003 to 2013: A Multinational Analysis Using National Registry Data

Objective To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement (THR) surgery for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. Methods Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Life tables and population data were also obtained for each country. Lifetime risk of THR was calculated for 2003 and 2013 using registry, life table, and population data. Results In 2003, lifetime risk of THR ranged from 8.7% (Denmark) to 15.9% (Norway) for females, and from 6.3% (Denmark) to 8.6% (Finland) for males. With the exception of females in Norway (where lifetime risk started and remained high), lifetime risk of THR increased significantly for both sexes in all countries from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, lifetime risk of THR was as high as 1 in 7 women in Norway, and 1 in 10 men in Finland. Females consistently demonstrated the highest lifetime risk of THR at both time points. Notably, lifetime risk for females in Norway was approximately double the risk for males in 2003 (females 15.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 15.6–16.1], males 6.9% [95% CI 6.7–7.1]), and 2013 (females 16.0% [95% CI 15.8–16.3], males 8.3% [95% CI 8.1–8.5]). Conclusion Using representative, population‐based data, this study found statistically significant increases in the lifetime risk of THR in 5 countries over a 10‐year period, and substantial between‐sex differences. These multinational risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery.