Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations

The United States and others should consider adopting a different approach to estimating costs and benefits in light of uncertainty. In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benef...

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Veröffentlicht in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2013-07, Vol.341 (6144), p.349-350
Hauptverfasser: Arrow, K., Cropper, M., Gollier, C., Groom, B., Heal, G., Newell, R., Nordhaus, W., Pindyck, R., Pizer, W., Portney, P., Sterner, T., Tol, R. S. J., Weitzman, M.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The United States and others should consider adopting a different approach to estimating costs and benefits in light of uncertainty. In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1235665