Concurrent Challenges of Conflict and Climate Change in Myanmar

The relationship between climate change and violent conflict is complicated. Existing studies suggest that climate change increases armed conflict through indirect pathways, including detriment to livelihoods, displacement, migration, and existing conflict dynamics. The exact nature of this interaction depends on each country’s political, socio-economic, and military contexts. Violent conflict, however, increases vulnerability to climate change by aggravating societal vulnerability and making populations more vulnerable to weather shocks. This suggests a plausible feedback loop of violence and vulnerability, worsened by climate change. Myanmar provides an illustration of the concurrent challenges of climate change and violence exacerbating societal vulnerability with potentially consequential security outcomes.