Dynamic α-Fetoprotein Response and Outcomes After Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE: Accurate preoperative prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplant is the mainstay of selection tools used by transplant-governing bodies to discern candidacy for patients with HCC. Although progress has been made, few tools incorporate objective measures of tumor biological characteristics, resulting in inclusion of patients with high recurrence rates and exclusion of others who could otherwise be cured. OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the New York/California (NYCA) score, a recently published multi-institutional US HCC selection tool that was the first model incorporating a dynamic α-fetoprotein response (AFP-R) and compare the validated score with currently accepted HCC selection tools, namely, the Milan Criteria (MC), the French-AFP (F-AFP), and Metroticket 2.0 models. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective, multicenter prognostic analysis of prospectively collected databases of 2236 adults undergoing liver transplant for HCC was conducted at 3 US, 1 Canadian, and 4 European centers from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2013. The AFP-R was measured as the difference between maximum and final pre-liver transplant AFP level. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk regression analyses examined recurrence-free and overall survival. Receiver operating characteristic analyses and net reclassification index were used to compare NYCA with MC, F-AFP, and Metroticket 2.0. Data analysis was performed from June 2019 to April 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary study outcome was 5-year recurrence-free survival; overall survival was the secondary outcome. RESULTS: Of 2236 patients, 1808 (80.9%) were men; mean (SD) age was 58.3 (7.96) years. A total of 545 patients (24.4%) did not meet the MC. The NYCA score proved valid on competing risk regression analysis, accurately predicting recurrence-free and overall survival (5-year cumulative incidence of recurrence risk in NYCA risk categories was 9.5% for low-, 20.5%, for acceptable-, and 40.5% for high-risk categories; P 75% 5-year recurrence-free survival). The Harrell C statistic for the validated NYCA score was 0.66 compared w