On the human inability to process inverse variables in intuitive judgments: different cognitive processes leading to the time loss bias

The time loss bias describes overestimation of time lost after speed decreases from high speeds and underestimations after decreases from low driving speeds. Participants judged the speed decrease from one speed (e.g. 130 km/h) that would give the same time loss as a decrease from another speed (e.g. from 40 to 30 km/h). We carried out descriptive spectral analyses of distributions of judgments for each problem. Each distribution peak was associated with a judgment rule. The first study found two different judgment processes both leading to the time loss bias: a Difference process rule used for 20% and a Ratio rule used for 31% of the judgments. The correct rule applied to 10% of the judgments. The second study added verbal protocols. The results showed that the Ratio rule was most common (41%) followed by the Difference (12%) and correct (8%) rules. Verbal reports supported these results.