Water quality and ecosystem management: Data‐driven reality check of effects in streams and lakes

This study investigates nutrient‐related water quality conditions and change trends in the first management periods of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; since 2009) and Baltic Sea Action Plan (BASP; since 2007). With mitigation of nutrients in inland waters and their discharges to the Baltic Sea being a common WFD and BSAP target, we use Sweden as a case study of observable effects, by compiling and analyzing all openly available water and nutrient monitoring data across Sweden since 2003. The data compilation reveals that nutrient monitoring covers only around 1% (down to 0.2% for nutrient loads) of the total number of WFD‐classified stream and lake water bodies in Sweden. The data analysis further shows that the hydro‐climatically driven water discharge dominates the determination of waterborne loads of both total phosphorus and total nitrogen across Sweden. Both water discharge and the related nutrient loads are in turn well correlated with the ecosystem status classification of Swedish water bodies. Nutrient concentrations do not exhibit such correlation and their changes over the study period are on average small, but concentration increases are found for moderate‐to‐bad status waters, for which both the WFD and the BSAP have instead targeted concentration decreases. In general, these results indicate insufficient distinction and mitigation of human‐driven nutrient components in inland waters and their discharges to the sea by the internationally harmonized applications of the WFD and the BSAP. The results call for further comparative investigations of observable large‐scale effects of such regulatory/management frameworks in different parts of the world. Key Points Nutrient loads correlate well with classified ecosystem status in monitored waters; nutrient concentrations do not Water discharge determines nutrient loads and underlies their correlation with ecosystem status class Nutrient concentration increases—not expected decreases—are found after first management period