Long-term consequences of being not in employment, education or training as a young adult. Stability and change in three Swedish birth cohorts

In this article we analyse the development of young adults not in education, employment or training (NEET) in three complete Swedish birth cohorts born in 1975, 1980 and 1985. We analyse the risk for future labour-market exclusion among NEETs, and how this risk varies between three birth cohorts who made the transition from school to work during periods characterised by different opportunity structures for young adults. Analyses using propensity score matching with repeated outcomes show that belonging to the NEET-group in early adulthood has an independent effect on the development of subsequent labour-market risk for both men and women. Moreover, this effect increases across the cohorts. The fact that the degree of labour-market attachment has clear and long-lasting implications indicates that the problems associated with being NEET cannot be reduced to a transient phase. Rather, it seems as though being NEET may be both a step on an already unfavourable life career and a triggering factor for social exclusion.