Soil incubations reproduce field methane dynamics in a subarctic wetland

A major challenge in peatland carbon cycle modeling is the estimation of subsurface methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) production and consumption rates and pathways. The most common methods for modeling these processes are soil incubations and stable isotope modeling, both of which may involve departures from field conditions. To explore the impacts of these departures, we measured CH₄/CO₂ concentration ratios and ¹³C fractionation factors (αC, indicating CH₄ production pathways) in field pore water from a thawing subarctic peatland, and compared these values to those observed in incubations of corresponding peat samples. Incubation CH₄/CO₂ production ratios were significantly and positively correlated with observed field CH₄/CO₂ concentration ratios, though observed field ratios were ~20 % of those in incubations due to CH₄’s lower solubility in pore water. After correcting the field ratios for CH₄ loss with an isotope mass balance model, the incubation CH₄/CO₂ ratios and αC were both significantly positively correlated with field ratios and αC (respectively), both with slopes indistinguishable from 1. Although CH₄/CO₂ ratios and αC were slightly higher in the incubations, these shifts were consistent along the thaw progression, indicating that ex situ incubations can replicate trends in in situ CH₄ production.