Climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the whole economy: An analysis of the impacts of the Plan Maroc Vert in Morocco

The paper provides estimates of economic impacts of climate change, compares thesewith historical impacts of drought spells, and estimates the extent to which the current Moroccanagricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agriculturaladaptation to climate change and uncertainty. We develop a regionalized Morocco ComputableGeneral Equilibrium model to analyse the linkages of climate-induced productivity losses (gains)at the level of administrative and economic regions in Morocco. Yield projections are obtainedfrom the joint-study by the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries and the World Bank,in collaboration with the National Institute for Agricultural Research, the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, and the Direction of National Meteorology. We model theclimate change impacts as productivity (or yield) shocks in the agricultural sector, and which areregion- and crop-specific. The yield projections are for 2050, and introduced with respect to a2003 baseline. With no adaptation, GDP impacts range from -3.1 per cent (worst-case scenario)to +0.4 per cent (best case scenario). The decline in GDP under the worst-case scenario resultsfrom a general contraction in economic aggregates. Accounting for the adaptation measures inthe Plan Maroc Vert, the GDP impacts from climate change are reduced and range from -0.3 percent to +3 per cent. Nonetheless, the adaptation potential of the Plan Maroc Vert is based uponthe assumption of achieving the identified productivity-enhancement targets, and which remainsquestionable.