VCMass: A Framework for Verification of Coronal Mass Ejection Ensemble Simulations

Supporting the growing field of space weather forecasting, we propose a framework to analyze ensemble simulations of coronal mass ejections. As the current simulation technique requires manual input, uncertainty is introduced into the simulation pipeline which leads to inaccurate predictions. Using our system, the analyst can compare ensemble members against ground truth data (arrival time and geo-effectivity) as well as information derived from satellite imagery. The simulations can be compared on a global basis, based on time-resolved quality measures, and as a 3D volumetric rendering with embedded satellite imagery in a multi-view setup. This flexible framework provides the expert with the tools to increase the knowledge about the, as of yet not fully understood, principles behind the formation of coronal mass ejections.