Sensitivity analysis of debris properties in lower plenum of a Nordic BWR

•The effect of MELCOR modelling parameters on in-vessel accident progression.•Sensitivity analysis of in-vessel accident progression and debris properties.•The most influential parameters affecting in-vessel accident progression were identified.•Possible ranges of relocated debris properties due to MELCOR modelling parameters were identified. Severe accident management (SAM) in Nordic Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) employs ex-vessel core debris coolability. The melt released from the vessel is poured into a deep pool of water and is expected to fragment, quench, and form a coolable debris bed. Success of the strategy is contingent upon the melt release mode from the vessel, which determine conditions for (i) the debris bed coolability, (ii) steam explosion that present credible threats to containment integrity. Melt release conditions are recognized as the major source of uncertainty in quantification of the risk of containment failure in Nordic BWRs. The characteristics of melt release are determined by the in-vessel accident scenarios and phenomena, subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties respectively. Specifically, properties of the debris relocated into the lower head determine conditions for the corium interactions with the vessel structures (such as instrumentation guide tubes IGTs, control rod guide tubes CRGTs), vessel failure and melt release. This work is focused on the evaluation of uncertainty in core degradation progression and its effect on the resultant properties of relocated debris in lower plenum of Nordic BWR. We use MELCOR code for prediction of the accident progression. The main goal of this paper is to characterize the range of possible debris properties in lower plenum and its sensitivity towards different modelling parameters, which is of paramount importance for the analysis of in-vessel debris coolability and vessel failure mode in the risk assessment framework.