A GIS-based approach for electrification planning—A case study on Nigeria

According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population live without access to electricity services—a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters—including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability. •A new methodology is developed for geospatial electrification planning.•The study combines a GIS analysis with a least cost technology planning approach.•The methodology is applied in Nigeria.•Grid extension is the optimal option for ca. 86% of the newly electrified population.