Fast Ground Transport for Sweden: An Independent Overview for Strategic Investment Decisions

In 2020 and 2021 the Swedish debate about high speed ground transport intensified. Conflicting facts and opinions have been presented in a way that is quite inconsistent with a global sustainability perspective. It is important that all societal sectors can be sustainable together. This implies a need to model futures within sustainability constraints that take all essential sustainability related challenges into account. This study is an independent preliminary strategic decision support overview on fast ground transport - directed towards Swedish transport politicians and other high level decision makers within the transport sector. The study covered three steps: Step 1. Describing a Vision of the Desired Future. What societal goals and requirements does a future sustainable system for fast ground transport need to live up to? It should meet customer expectations for “value for money” (e.g. speed, punctuality, comfort) It should not contribute to systematic destruction of the environment (e.g. through emissions or physical destruction) or the social system (e.g. through health problems and discrimination). It should be prudent with the societal economy and resource reserves. Step 2. Assessing the Current Situation in Relation to the Vision. It was found that fuels and infrastructure for travel with trains are much better than private cars or domestic flights from a sustainability perspective. But it was also found that the Swedish train system has a maintenance debt and is operating near its maximum capacity with frequent disturbancies and delays. Step 3. Reviewing Strategic Investment Choices. What are some potential alternative investment choices to close the gap between the current situation and a desired future and what are their likely economic, ecological and social effects? Assumptions and variations around three main alternatives were reviewed with the following results: Scenario 1. Upgrade the Existing System. This may add some marginal benefits but may risk to not meet transport demands, to not protect the environment and to add societal costs. Scenario 2. Build a New High Speed Rail (HSR) System. This would likely be better for transport demands and the societal economy but also have some environmental impacts. Scenario 3. Build a New Magnetic Levitation (‘Maglev’) Train System. This could have the best potential to meet transport demands and to create benefits for the societal economy with the least environmental impacts. The main recommendat