Aftershocks and the rupture zone of the MS = 8.2, November 15, 2006 Middle Kuril Is. Earthquake and a long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from April 2008 to March 2013

Results are reported from the ongoing 2007–2008 work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. This method was successful in predicting the M S = 8.2 Simushir I. (Middle Kuril Is.) earthquake occurring in the Simushir I. area on November 15, 2006. An M S = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the same area on January 13, 2007. We consider the evolution of the seismic process and determine the common rupture region of the two earthquakes. The sequence of M ≥ 6.0 aftershocks and forecasts for these are given. We provide a long-term forecast for the earthquake-generating zone of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the next five years, April 2008 to March 2013. Explanations are given for the method of calculation and prediction. The probable locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes are specified. For all segments of the earthquake-generating zone we predict the expected phases of the seismic cycle, the rate of low-magnitude seismicity (A 10 ), the magnitudes of moderate-sized earthquakes to be expected, with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, their maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of occurrence of great ( M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. The results of these forecasts are used to enhance seismic safety.