Modelling with authentic data in sixth grade

This article explores 6th-grade students' modelling with data in generating models for selecting an Australian swimming team for the (then) forthcoming 2016 Olympics, using data on swimmers' times at various previous events. We propose a modelling framework comprising four components: working in shared problem spaces between mathematics and statistics; interpreting and reinterpreting problem contexts and questions; interpreting, organising and operating on data in model construction; and drawing informal inferences. In studying students' model generation, consideration is given to how they interpreted, organised, and operated on the problem data in constructing and documenting their models, and how they engaged in informal inferential reasoning. Students' responses included applying mathematical and statistical operations and reasoning to selected variables, identifying how variation and trends in swimmers' performances inform model construction, recognising limitations in using only one performance variable, and acknowledging uncertainty in model creation and model application due to chance variation. [Author abstract]